Who Knew?

Concerning “Platform Maturity”

There’s a common opinion that the iOS platform has reached full maturation - that is, it seems to be feature complete, with no obvious points of major improvement. If Apple actually believes that and continues with business as usual, they’re dead. Delivering minor iterations on a mature platform can only lead to diminishing returns and creates an opportunity for disruption by competitors.

Tech companies who have been in similar positions yet remain relevant today have historically pursued at least one of the following options.

Total reinvention. The company takes what they’ve learned in the years or decades since the first product launch, and redesigns their software (or just the front-end) from the ground up. Major interface changes are introduced in the new version that might cause confusion for established customers, but the company sees this as an acceptable compromise as the new product is truly better than its predecessor. (See: the new Basecamp, the new Vimeo, Mac OS X, Final Cut Pro X.)

Broaden expectations. For example, if iOS 5 does everything one might expect a smartphone to do, the next step for Apple is to heighten consumer expectations of what a smartphone can accomplish - like introducing pro apps. (Think “Final Cut Pro for iPhone”.)

Move on. The company’s focus shifts to developing the next big thing - for example, Apple’s shift from the iPod to the iPhone. Many take this step when it’s about three years too late, like Nokia from Symbian to Windows Phone 7.

Apple appears to be terrified of complacency in Steve Jobs’ absence, and I can’t imagine that they’re not working on one of these three strategies.